CONVECTIVE FORECAST
VALID Fri 03 Feb 06:00 - Sat 04 Feb 06:00 2006 (UTC)
ISSUED: 02 Feb 22:18 (UTC)
FORECASTER: TUSCHY

Thunderstorms are forecast across south Portugal,coastal areas of southeast Spain, Strait of Gibraltar and parts of the Balearic Sea

SYNOPSIS

Again, most parts of Europe are piled with cool and stable airmass and significant TSTM development is not anticipated in this area.
Southeastward sliding upper-level system will cross Portugal and Spain during the forecast period and attendant pool of cold mid-level air should help for marginal destabilisation...Low-end instability and very weak shear conditions will preclude any organized TSTM threat....a marginal hail risk will exist over S-Portugal/extreme southern Spain, where steep lapse rates and low-end instability will interfere with each other...Threat will quickly ease from west to east.

DISCUSSION

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